Monopoly Fight

photo by-Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The ongoing offensive by Iraqi and American forces in the southern port city of Basra and its apparent stalemate appears to be a harbinger for the future in Iraq. Notwithstanding the declarative statements by Prime Minister Maliki that the operation would be decisive in eradicating militia control of the southern part of Iraq, these ragtag groups of fighters have fought to a draw the federal forces, backed by U.S. and British warplanes.

With Basra under the control of 3 different militias backed by their respective armed wings, the Badr Organization of the Supreme Islamic Council, the Mahdi Army of radical cleric al-Sadr as well as the Fadhila Party and its fighters, the federal government of Maliki has been unable to assert a monopoly of force in most of southern Iraq.

Though President Bush hailed the offensive as a "bold decision" by Maliki, and stating it that it is turning point in the war, a war that has entered it fifth year, it appears to be destined to be like all the other major "turning points" and show how deep the rifts are between warring factions and how difficult it will be to either bring them together or defeat them outright. It has been apparent that they militias will be very difficult to defeat, as evidenced by the offer of cash payments if the fighters laid down their arms. This after many statements by Maliki that the offensive would be final and defeat "criminal elements" as Maliki called them, from Iraq forever.

Well, this is not happening, and they have fought the Iraq forces backed by US and UK warplanes to a stalemate. It seems like Iraq is seetling into a Lebanon type situation. That is, where you have a federal government unable to exert a monopoly of force throughout the nation, while large cities or areas of land are controlled by political parties backed by military forces. See Hezbollah and Hamas for examples.

In addition to these being politicians and fighters, they are also community leaders, operating schools, hospitals, even gas stations run by the Mahdi Army. SO what oyu end up having are state within states, battling for control of streets and alleys.

It just seems like nothing never gets better, it only gets slightly better or much worse.